Super Bowl Squares Odds & Probabilities
Learn about Football Squares probabilities
Super Bowl Squares Odds from Every NFL Game on Record
Super Bowl squares remain one of the most popular ways to add excitement to the big game, whether you're at a party or watching with friends. In this classic 10x10 grid game, each square corresponds to the last digit of the scores for the two teams at the end of the game. But not all squares are created equal—some combinations are far more likely to hit based on historical NFL scoring patterns.
This analysis is based on every final score in NFL history, from 1920 through the 2025 season (totaling 18,235 games). We're only looking at final scores here, not quarter-by-quarter breaks, since that's what decides most squares pools. These probabilities reflect the likelihood of each last-digit pair occurring, accounting for random team assignment to the grid axes by symmetrizing the counts.
Key Insights:
- Most common combinations: Squares involving 0, 3, 4, and 7 continue to dominate, as NFL scores often end in these digits due to field goals (3), touchdowns with extra points (7), and multiples thereof.
- Best squares: 0-7 (and 7-0) top the list at 3.91%, followed by 4-7 (3.33%) and 0-0 (2.96%).
- Worst squares: Avoid 2-2 (0.04%), 5-5 (0.15%), 9-9 (0.18%), along with other rare ones like 5-9 (0.16%) or 2-5 (0.19%).
- Methodology: For each game, we extracted the last digits of the winning and losing scores, added counts to both orders (e.g., 3-0 and 0-3), and computed percentages as count / (2 * total games) * 100. This gives the expected hit rate assuming random axis assignment. Data is sourced from historical NFL game logs covering every regular season, playoff, and Super Bowl game since 1920.
Probability Table for Super Bowl Squares (Final Scores)
The table below shows the percentage chance for each combination (rows: one team's last digit; columns: the other's). Higher values indicate better squares. Percentages are rounded to two decimal places for readability.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.96% | 1.45% | 0.70% | 2.90% | 2.57% | 0.66% | 1.76% | 3.91% | 1.03% | 0.83% |
| 1 | 1.45% | 0.83% | 0.33% | 0.98% | 1.85% | 0.42% | 0.62% | 1.90% | 0.93% | 0.42% |
| 2 | 0.70% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.39% | 0.52% | 0.19% | 0.29% | 0.61% | 0.22% | 0.26% |
| 3 | 2.90% | 0.98% | 0.39% | 1.21% | 1.51% | 0.42% | 1.35% | 2.22% | 0.60% | 0.60% |
| 4 | 2.57% | 1.85% | 0.52% | 1.51% | 1.78% | 0.55% | 1.03% | 3.33% | 0.97% | 0.61% |
| 5 | 0.66% | 0.42% | 0.19% | 0.42% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.24% | 0.73% | 0.36% | 0.16% |
| 6 | 1.76% | 0.62% | 0.29% | 1.35% | 1.03% | 0.24% | 0.59% | 1.29% | 0.39% | 0.48% |
| 7 | 3.91% | 1.90% | 0.61% | 2.22% | 3.33% | 0.73% | 1.29% | 2.56% | 1.02% | 0.86% |
| 8 | 1.03% | 0.93% | 0.22% | 0.60% | 0.97% | 0.36% | 0.39% | 1.02% | 0.36% | 0.21% |
| 9 | 0.83% | 0.42% | 0.26% | 0.60% | 0.61% | 0.16% | 0.48% | 0.86% | 0.21% | 0.18% |
Top 10 Best Squares (Highest Probability)
| Rank | Square | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-7 / 7-0 | 3.91% |
| 2 | 4-7 / 7-4 | 3.33% |
| 3 | 0-0 | 2.96% |
| 4 | 0-3 / 3-0 | 2.90% |
| 5 | 0-4 / 4-0 | 2.57% |
| 6 | 7-7 | 2.56% |
| 7 | 3-7 / 7-3 | 2.22% |
| 8 | 1-7 / 7-1 | 1.90% |
| 9 | 1-4 / 4-1 | 1.85% |
| 10 | 4-4 | 1.78% |
Bottom 10 Worst Squares (Lowest Probability)
| Rank | Square | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2-2 | 0.04% |
| 2 | 5-5 | 0.15% |
| 3 | 5-9 / 9-5 | 0.16% |
| 4 | 9-9 | 0.18% |
| 5 | 2-5 / 5-2 | 0.19% |
| 6 | 8-9 / 9-8 | 0.21% |
| 7 | 2-8 / 8-2 | 0.22% |
| 8 | 5-6 / 6-5 | 0.24% |
| 9 | 2-9 / 9-2 | 0.26% |
| 10 | 2-6 / 6-2 | 0.29% |
With over a century of games in the sample, this dataset smooths out the rarities you'd see in any single season—every combination shows up at least occasionally, since 18,235 games is enough to capture even uncommon scoring outcomes. The core pattern holds throughout NFL history: 0-7 stays dominant because a touchdown-plus-extra-point (7) paired with a scoreless digit (0) is one of the most natural ways a game can end, and 4-7 benefits from how often two touchdown-based scores collide on the last digit.
If you're hosting or joining a squares pool for the next Super Bowl, use this guide to pick your spots wisely. Remember, while these odds are based on final scores, quarter-by-quarter can vary slightly—focus on end-of-game for the biggest payouts. Good luck, and may your square hit big!
Click the following link(s) to get previous years' analysis:
- Football Squares odds and probabilities for the 2023 Super Bowl
- Football Squares odds and probabilities for the 2021 Super Bowl
- Football Squares odds and probabilities for the 2020 Super Bowl
- Football Squares odds and probabilities for the 2019 Super Bowl
- Football Squares odds and probabilities for the 2018 Super Bowl
- Football Squares odds and probabilities for the 2017 Super Bowl
- Football Squares odds and probabilities for the 2016 Super Bowl
As you can see, the odds are pretty much the same as you thought, but at least now you have the proof.