Super Bowl Squares Odds & Probabilities

Learn about Football Squares probabilities

Updated Super Bowl Squares Odds Based on the Last 10 Years of NFL Seasons (2015-2024)

Super Bowl squares remain one of the most popular ways to add excitement to the big game, whether you're at a party or watching with friends. In this classic 10x10 grid game, each square corresponds to the last digit of the scores for the two teams at the end of each quarter or the final score. But not all squares are created equal—some combinations are far more likely to hit based on historical NFL scoring patterns.

The previous analysis on drew from NFL regular season and playoff games between 2015 and 2022, providing probabilities adjusted for factors like extra point changes. For this updated version, we've expanded the dataset to include all final scores from the 2015-2024 NFL regular seasons, playoffs, and Super Bowls (totaling 2333 games). These probabilities reflect the likelihood of each last-digit pair occurring, accounting for random team assignment to the grid axes by symmetrizing the counts.

Key Insights:

  • Most common combinations: Squares involving 0, 3, 4, 6, and 7 continue to dominate, as NFL scores often end in these digits due to field goals (3), touchdowns with extra points (7), and multiples thereof.
  • Best squares: 0-7 (and 7-0) top the list at 3.30%, followed by 4-7 (2.83%) and 0-3 (2.70%).
  • Worst squares: Avoid 2-2 (0.09%), 5-5 (0.13%), 8-8 (0.17%), along with other rare ones like 8-9 (0.32%) or 5-9 (0.34%).
  • Methodology: For each game, we extracted the last digits of both scores, added counts to both orders (e.g., 3-0 and 0-3), and computed percentages as count / (2 * total games) * 100. This gives the expected hit rate assuming random axis assignment. Data sourced from pro-football-reference.com yearly game logs.

Probability Table for Super Bowl Squares (Final Scores)

The table below shows the percentage chance for each combination (rows: one team's last digit; columns: the other's). Higher values indicate better squares. Percentages are rounded to two decimal places for readability.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 2.23% 0.81% 0.86% 2.70% 2.44% 1.07% 1.89% 3.30% 1.07% 0.88%
1 0.81% 0.86% 0.60% 1.20% 1.76% 0.43% 0.54% 1.26% 1.18% 0.36%
2 0.86% 0.60% 0.09% 0.54% 0.66% 0.41% 0.54% 0.66% 0.58% 0.56%
3 2.70% 1.20% 0.54% 1.03% 0.96% 0.51% 1.46% 1.99% 0.79% 0.77%
4 2.44% 1.76% 0.66% 0.96% 1.37% 0.36% 1.24% 2.83% 0.92% 0.71%
5 1.07% 0.43% 0.41% 0.51% 0.36% 0.13% 0.58% 0.51% 0.43% 0.34%
6 1.89% 0.54% 0.54% 1.46% 1.24% 0.58% 0.73% 1.07% 0.84% 0.69%
7 3.30% 1.26% 0.66% 1.99% 2.83% 0.51% 1.07% 1.59% 0.69% 1.39%
8 1.07% 1.18% 0.58% 0.79% 0.92% 0.43% 0.84% 0.69% 0.17% 0.32%
9 0.88% 0.36% 0.56% 0.77% 0.71% 0.34% 0.69% 1.39% 0.32% 0.39%

Top 10 Best Squares (Highest Probability)

  1. 0-7 / 7-0: 3.30%
  2. 4-7 / 7-4: 2.83%
  3. 0-3 / 3-0: 2.70%
  4. 0-4 / 4-0: 2.44%
  5. 0-0: 2.23%
  6. 3-7 / 7-3: 1.99%
  7. 0-6 / 6-0: 1.89%
  8. 1-4 / 4-1: 1.76%
  9. 7-7: 1.59%
  10. 3-6 / 6-3: 1.46%

Bottom 10 Worst Squares (Lowest Probability)

  1. 2-2: 0.09%
  2. 5-5: 0.13%
  3. 8-8: 0.17%
  4. 8-9 / 9-8: 0.32%
  5. 5-9 / 9-5: 0.34%
  6. 1-9 / 9-1: 0.36%
  7. 4-5 / 5-4: 0.36%
  8. 9-9: 0.39%
  9. 2-5 / 5-2: 0.41%
  10. 5-8 / 8-5: 0.43%

Compared to the single-season (2024-25) analysis, this 10-year dataset smooths out rarities—no combinations have 0% probability, as larger samples capture even uncommon scoring outcomes. However, trends remain consistent, with 0-7 staying dominant due to frequent touchdown + extra point results. Combinations like 4-7 have held strong, reflecting evolving strategies such as more two-point attempts.

If you're hosting or joining a squares pool for the next Super Bowl, use this guide to pick your spots wisely. Remember, while these odds are based on final scores, quarter-by-quarter can vary slightly—focus on end-of-game for the biggest payouts. Good luck, and may your square hit big!

Click the following link(s) to get previous years' analysis:

As you can see, the odds are pretty much the same as you thought, but at least now you have the proof.