Scoring Plays Squares
Football squares where every square has a real chance to win
A squares board built on kinds of score
The rows and columns are 10 kinds of score instead of the digits 0–9: field goals by distance, touchdowns by run or pass and yards, defensive and 2-point scores, and None. At the end of each quarter, the square where each team's latest kind of score meets wins. Works with NFL and Division I college (FBS and FCS) games.
| 3 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| 9 | |||||
| 7 | |||||
| 2 | |||||
| 0 | |||||
| 5 |
Home 10, Away 17. The last digits are 0 and 7, so the 7 / 0 square wins.
5 of the 10 rows and columns shown.
| Pass TD 19+ | None | FG 33‑44 | Rush TD 1‑3 | FG <33 | |
| FG 45+ | |||||
| Pass TD 7‑18 | |||||
| D/ST or 2‑pt | |||||
| Rush TD 4+ | |||||
| Pass TD 1‑6 |
Home's latest score is a 38-yard field goal, Away's is a 12-yard touchdown pass, so the Pass TD 7-18 / FG 33-44 square wins.
5 of the 10 rows and columns shown.
The chances below come from every scoring play of the 2024 and 2025 NFL seasons (668 games), checked at the end of every quarter.
Key Insights:
- Best squares: None & None (2.13%), FG 45+ yds & FG 45+ yds (2.13%) and FG 33-44 yds & FG 33-44 yds (1.91%).
- Worst squares: D/ST TD or 2-pt & D/ST TD or 2-pt (0.26%) and Pass TD 1-6 yds & D/ST TD or 2-pt (0.34%), since defensive scores and 2-point plays are rare.
- Much more even than classic squares: on a classic board the best square (0 & 7) wins 6.76% of the time and 53 of the 100 squares win less than 0.5%. Here the best square wins 2.13% and only 13 squares are under 0.5%. A perfectly even board would give every square 1.00%.
- Methodology: for every quarter end of every game, we took each team's latest kind of score, counted the square in both orders (teams land on rows or columns at random), and divided by all quarter ends. See the classic squares odds for the digit version.
The 10 Kinds of Score
These are the headers on the board. A kicked extra point never counts; a successful 2-point play does.
| Header | What counts | How often it's on the winning square |
|---|---|---|
| None | The team has not scored yet. | 10.8% |
| FG <33 yds | A field goal of 32 yards or less. | 11.6% |
| FG 33-44 yds | A field goal of 33 to 44 yards. | 13.5% |
| FG 45+ yds | A field goal of 45 yards or more. | 13.3% |
| Rush TD 1-3 yds | A running touchdown of 1 to 3 yards. | 9.3% |
| Rush TD 4+ yds | A running touchdown of 4 yards or more. | 8.8% |
| Pass TD 1-6 yds | A passing touchdown of 1 to 6 yards. | 9.1% |
| Pass TD 7-18 yds | A passing touchdown of 7 to 18 yards. | 10.0% |
| Pass TD 19+ yds | A passing touchdown of 19 yards or more. | 8.9% |
| D/ST TD or 2-pt | Any interception, fumble, kick or punt return touchdown, or any successful 2-point play: a safety, a defensive return of an extra point or 2-point try, or a good 2-point conversion (the team that converts it lands here). | 4.6% |
Chance Table for Every Square
The chance each square wins at a quarter end (rows: one team's latest kind of score; columns: the other's). Green squares win more often than an even 1.00%, red squares less than 0.5%.
| None | FG <33 yds | FG 33‑44 yds | FG 45+ yds | Rush TD 1‑3 yds | Rush TD 4+ yds | Pass TD 1‑6 yds | Pass TD 7‑18 yds | Pass TD 19+ yds | D/ST TD or 2‑pt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 2.13% | 1.18% | 1.22% | 1.16% | 1.01% | 1.05% | 1.05% | 1.12% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
| FG <33 yds | 1.18% | 1.50% | 1.82% | 1.53% | 1.07% | 0.84% | 1.10% | 0.84% | 1.31% | 0.41% |
| FG 33-44 yds | 1.22% | 1.82% | 1.91% | 1.80% | 1.12% | 0.99% | 1.12% | 1.61% | 1.29% | 0.67% |
| FG 45+ yds | 1.16% | 1.53% | 1.80% | 2.13% | 1.31% | 1.27% | 1.03% | 1.35% | 1.07% | 0.65% |
| Rush TD 1-3 yds | 1.01% | 1.07% | 1.12% | 1.31% | 0.64% | 0.73% | 1.18% | 0.86% | 0.92% | 0.43% |
| Rush TD 4+ yds | 1.05% | 0.84% | 0.99% | 1.27% | 0.73% | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.77% | 1.09% | 0.39% |
| Pass TD 1-6 yds | 1.05% | 1.10% | 1.12% | 1.03% | 1.18% | 0.80% | 0.79% | 0.90% | 0.79% | 0.34% |
| Pass TD 7-18 yds | 1.12% | 0.84% | 1.61% | 1.35% | 0.86% | 0.77% | 0.90% | 0.86% | 0.92% | 0.73% |
| Pass TD 19+ yds | 0.54% | 1.31% | 1.29% | 1.07% | 0.92% | 1.09% | 0.79% | 0.92% | 0.64% | 0.39% |
| D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.36% | 0.41% | 0.67% | 0.65% | 0.43% | 0.39% | 0.34% | 0.73% | 0.39% | 0.26% |
Top 10 Best Squares
| Rank | Square | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | None & None | 2.13% |
| 2 | FG 45+ yds & FG 45+ yds | 2.13% |
| 3 | FG 33-44 yds & FG 33-44 yds | 1.91% |
| 4 | FG <33 yds & FG 33-44 yds | 1.82% |
| 5 | FG 33-44 yds & FG 45+ yds | 1.80% |
| 6 | FG 33-44 yds & Pass TD 7-18 yds | 1.61% |
| 7 | FG <33 yds & FG 45+ yds | 1.53% |
| 8 | FG <33 yds & FG <33 yds | 1.50% |
| 9 | FG 45+ yds & Pass TD 7-18 yds | 1.35% |
| 10 | FG <33 yds & Pass TD 19+ yds | 1.31% |
Bottom 10 Worst Squares
| Rank | Square | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | D/ST TD or 2-pt & D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.26% |
| 2 | Pass TD 1-6 yds & D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.34% |
| 3 | None & D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.36% |
| 4 | Pass TD 19+ yds & D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.39% |
| 5 | Rush TD 4+ yds & D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.39% |
| 6 | FG <33 yds & D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.41% |
| 7 | Rush TD 1-3 yds & D/ST TD or 2-pt | 0.43% |
| 8 | None & Pass TD 19+ yds | 0.54% |
| 9 | Pass TD 19+ yds & Pass TD 19+ yds | 0.64% |
| 10 | Rush TD 1-3 yds & Rush TD 1-3 yds | 0.64% |
Scoring Plays vs. Classic Squares
Both styles measured on the same 668 games, paying every quarter end.
Best square's chance
Classic
6.76%
Scoring plays
2.13%
Squares under 0.5%
Classic
53 of 100
Scoring plays
13 of 100
Worst square's chance
Classic
0.04%
Scoring plays
0.26%
Example
- 1st quarter: Bears kick a 45-yard field goal; the Lions don't score. Winner: FG 45+ yds & None.
- 2nd quarter: Lions throw a 12-yard touchdown pass. Winner at halftime: FG 45+ yds & Pass TD 7-18 yds.
- 3rd quarter: nobody scores, so the same square wins again.
Questions
- How is a winner decided?
- At the end of the 1st quarter, halftime, the 3rd quarter and the final, look at each team's most recent kind of score, even if it came in an earlier quarter. The square where those two headers meet wins.
- Do extra points and 2-point conversions count?
- A kicked extra point never counts. A successful 2-point play does: a good 2-point conversion, a safety, or a defense returning a try puts that team on D/ST TD or 2-pt. A failed 2-point try changes nothing.
- What if a team hasn't scored yet?
- It sits on None. If neither team has scored by the end of the 1st quarter, the None & None square wins.
- Do I have to track the plays myself?
- No. Turn on automatic winner tracking and pick the real game: the site reads each scoring play from the live scores, sorts it into its kind, and marks the winning square at the end of every quarter. You can also pick winners by hand.
- Which grids can use scoring plays?
- Any 100-square (10x10) grid for a single NFL or Division I college (FBS or FCS) game. Division II, Division III and NAIA games aren't supported. Choose "Scoring plays" as the pool style in the grid's settings before you draw the numbers.
Try a scoring plays board
Create a 100-square grid and pick "Scoring plays" as the pool style in its settings.